At the recent COP28 climate summit in Dubai, nearly 200 countries made significant collective pledges aimed at maintaining the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. For the first time, governments set concrete goals to support this objective, including a historic commitment to triple global renewable energy capacity by the end of this decade.
The IEA’s newly released report, COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge: Tracking Countries’ Ambitions and Identifying Policies to Bridge the Gap, delivers essential insights. The report provides a comprehensive global assessment of renewable energy capacity plans across more than 145 countries. It examines whether current renewable deployment trends align with governmental ambitions and the goal of reaching 11,000 gigawatts (GW) of capacity by 2030.
Global ambitions and China’s pivotal Role
According to the IEA’s latest estimates, the collective ambitions of countries for 2030 aim to reach a total renewable energy capacity of 7,903 gigawatts (GW), which represents 2.2 times the installed capacity in 2022, serving as the baseline for the global tripling pledge. To achieve this ambitious target, countries will need to install nearly 4,250 GW of additional capacity by the end of the decade. China’s implicit ambition, driven by recent deployment trends, could see the country’s renewable capacity reach 2.5 times its 2022 level. This alone would account for 45% of the global capacity growth required to meet the overall target. If China successfully realizes this ambition, its share of global installed renewable capacity is expected to increase from 34% in 2022 to 40% by 2030, underscoring its critical role in the global energy transition.
China is not the only major player in this global push for renewable energy. Europe is also set to make a significant contribution to the 2030 targets, with the region’s ambitions aimed at nearly doubling its renewable capacity to contribute 20% (1,590 GW) of the global total. Germany leads the charge within Europe, accounting for almost one-quarter of the region’s goal. Close behind are Spain, Italy, France, and the United Kingdom, which together represent another one-third of Europe’s renewable energy ambitions. Notably, 81% of the region’s targets for 2030 are driven by the European Union, with EU member states outlining their aspirations in the latest updates to their national energy and climate plans (NECPs).
In addition to China’s and Europe’s significant contributions, other regions are also key players in the global renewable energy transition
The Asia-Pacific region, led by India and Japan, accounts for 15% of global ambitions, with India targeting 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030, and Japan aiming for a 36-38% renewable electricity share. In North America, the U.S. and Canada plan to double their renewable capacity to nearly 1,000 GW by 2030, contributing 13% to the global total. Meanwhile, Latin America, led by Brazil, is set to increase its renewable capacity by 1.4 times the 2022 level, further driving global efforts to expand renewable energy by the end of the decade.
In the next paragraph we’ll explore the renewable energy ambitions for 2030, highlighting the contributions of different technologies and their impact on the global energy landscape.
Countries focus on variable renewables for 2030 targets
Solar PV and wind energy are at the forefront of most countries’ renewable energy ambitions for 2030, while dispatchable renewables like geothermal, bioenergy, and concentrated solar power are often overlooked. If these ambitions are realized, solar PV capacity will exceed that of hydropower—currently the largest installed renewable capacity globally. Solar PV is poised to become the dominant source, contributing 32% (2,494 GW) of total global ambitions, followed by hydropower at 19% (1,531 GW) and wind energy.
Countries have explicitly defined plans for only 2,964 GW, or 38% of global ambitions, with an additional 700 GW estimated based on existing capacities and ambitions expressed in other metrics, revealing a significant focus on solar PV and wind, which together account for the majority of this announced capacity. Solar PV leads the charge with 50% (1,480 GW) of the identified capacity, followed by wind at 26% (765 GW), although specific allocations between onshore and offshore wind remain largely undefined. In contrast, dispatchable renewables like hydropower, bioenergy, and others such as geothermal have garnered less explicit attention. Hydropower ambitions represent 21% of the total, while bioenergy, concentrated solar power (CSP), and ocean technologies collectively account for less than 4%. Notably, geothermal energy, despite its potential, is among the least prioritized technologies, with only 28 countries quantifying their ambitions for it. Indonesia, the Philippines, and Mexico stand out as the top three countries with the most ambitious geothermal energy plans.
There are notable discrepancies between the technology-specific ambitions for renewable energy and the current installed capacities. Bioenergy is frequently overlooked despite its widespread use. While 124 countries have existing bioenergy capacity, only 31 have established clear goals for 2030. This gap partly arises because bioenergy is often integrated with non-renewable sources in national strategies, such as using solid biomass in co-firing processes and blending waste energy and biogases with hydrogen or other gases. This mismatch highlights the need for more explicit and focused ambitions for bioenergy in future energy plans.
Regional trends
As previously highlighted, China and Europe are leading the charge in renewable energy ambitions, though their strategies and goals differ significantly. China, responsible for 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions from power and heat production, has set a target to peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and expand wind and solar power capacity to over 1,200 GW by 2030. With its current capacity at 1,130 GW, China could meet this goal six years early. The country’s total renewable capacity, which surpassed 1,500 GW in 2023, is expected to exceed 3,000 GW by 2030.
In contrast, Europe, which produces less than 8% of global emissions, aims to double its renewable capacity from 800 GW in 2022 to nearly 1,600 GW by 2030. The top seven contributors—Germany, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, France, the United Kingdom, and Türkiye—are responsible for 70% of this increase. Solar PV is projected to surpass wind energy to become the largest renewable technology in Europe. However, the region’s ambitions for dispatchable technologies like hydropower and bioenergy are less emphasized compared to variable renewables. The EU’s updated National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) may further boost ambitions if member states respond to calls for higher targets. Germany leads in capacity goals, aiming for 375 GW by 2030, followed by Spain and Italy. The EU’s renewable capacity plans also highlight varied focuses across member states, with significant contributions from solar PV, wind, and bioenergy. Italy, Croatia, Portugal, Spain, and Slovakia have announced ambitions for geothermal energy.
In the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China), countries aim to double their renewable capacity to nearly 1,200 GW by 2030, representing 15% of global ambitions. India leads with plans for 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity, including 485 GW from renewables. Japan targets a 36-38% renewable electricity share, equating to 187-201 GW, while Australia aims for 98 GW. ASEAN countries collectively plan for over 225 GW, with Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines making major contributions. Solar PV is set to drive over 60% of this growth, reaching 650 GW by 2030, while wind capacity is expected to more than triple to over 235 GW. Despite the focus on these technologies, challenges remain, including investment difficulties for onshore wind and high costs for offshore wind, which is primarily pursued by Japan, Vietnam, and Chinese Taipei. Bioenergy and hydropower are less emphasized, with India and Vietnam leading in these areas. Countries are also tackling integration challenges and overcapacity in fossil fuels, with India implementing hybrid plants and repowering initiatives, and Australia, Japan, and Vietnam focusing on integrating and expanding renewable technologies.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the recent IEA’s report has catalysed a significant global push towards renewable energy, with nearly 200 countries pledging to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. China and Europe are leading this transition, with China poised to contribute 45% of the required growth and Europe aiming to double its capacity. As nations strive to meet their 2030 targets, a focus on both variable and dispatchable renewables, along with overcoming technological and economic challenges, will be crucial for achieving the global climate goals set under the Paris Agreement.
Read the full report here.
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